Why is my race prediction getting worse even though I'm hitting all my paces?

We totally get that this is frustrating: you're sticking to the plan, and yet the number isn't moving in the direction you'd like. Here we explain honestly how the prediction comes about – and why a “worse” number is usually not bad news at all.

What Trait knows at the start – and what it doesn't

When you create your plan, Trait only knows what you entered during onboarding (level, Feelgood pace) and maybe two or three sessions. A statement like “this is how fast you'll run the marathon in three months” would, quite honestly, be reading tea leaves at that point.

Other providers calculate a fixed number from your previous training volume using common load models. That looks precise, but it can be neither verified nor disproven. Trait takes a different approach: our model separates endurance (cardiovascular) and muscular running ability (stamina) – and we deliberately don't stick our necks out.

What the prediction shows

1. Today: What you'd run if the race were right now. At the start, this often says “we don't know yet”. If you've never run more than 10 km, for example, it might even say for a marathon that you wouldn't make it to the finish – or show a correspondingly slow time.
2. On race day: a range between two scenarios:
   • Worst case: You train cautiously, a little, but consistently. This corresponds to the Light training mode. Example: marathon in 5:30 h, just about making it.
   • Best case: You train fully, with no injuries, every session as planned. This corresponds to the All-In training mode. Example: 4:30 h or even 4:00 h.
   The Base training mode sits in the middle.

Why the number can get slower

With every week, Trait has to estimate less: the race gets closer, and Trait sees how you actually trained. As a result, the range gets narrower.

Most runners don't train in the best case but somewhere in the middle – one session moved, one shortened, the occasional day missed. That's why the range usually shrinks from the optimistic side: a theoretically possible 4:00 h becomes a realistic estimate of, say, 4:45–4:50 h. This can also make the displayed value slower.

This is not a setback and not a bug. It doesn't mean you've gotten worse – it means Trait now knows more precisely where you stand. The number is often not bad at all – but to many it feels like they're not making progress.

Trait could only “look better” by crediting you with a faster time than is realistic. We deliberately don't want to do that – not at the start and not later on.

What you can do

• If you want to move more towards the best case and your body can handle it: set your training mode towards All-In and run the sessions as planned as much as possible. The training mode is only available in individual training; how to switch it is explained in the category “Adjusting your plan, illness & holidays”.
• You'll see your actual progress much better in the graphs and statistics on the Stats page than in the prediction. More on that under How do I see my progress?
• The prediction is deliberately tucked away in a submenu so you don't fixate on it every day. Where to find it is explained under Where do I find my prediction?

We can't promise that the prediction will get faster again, and we don't give our own time predictions either. What we do promise: the number you see is our most honest estimate based on what we know about your training.